Chart of the Week

  • 03/23/20

    This week, Michael Metcalfe, global head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets asks whether the equity market is already close to discounting an unlikely “average recession”.

    “Our new KKT index* indicates a more than 90 percent chance of recession in the next six months, as parts of the economy shut down in light of the COVID-19 virus. Despite this, equity markets are now close to discounting the likelihood of an “average recession”. Over the past century, the average recession has


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