A crucial question of confidence for Q4

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This week Michael Metcalfe, head of Global Macro Strategy highlights the lack of US investor confidence going into the Q4. He comments, “Investor confidence in the US collapsed last August and has only made a modest recovery, in spite of some spectacular U-turns from central banks. This raises the question, what will happen in Q4 as the more recent weakness in business and consumer confidence catches up with investors’ caution? Investors do appear ready for some slowing, but certainly not an outright recession or a re-escalation of the trade war. It is troubling that the combined confidence of US consumers, business and investors has not been this low since the financial crisis.”

Capturing confidence across the US economy

Source: State Street Global Markets, Bloomberg

 

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