Has Trump manufactured a re-election challenge?

Please see below the latest ‘Chart of the Week’ from State Street Global Markets

Category:

Has Trump manufactured a re-election challenge?

Since slipping into contraction in August, the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing index has fallen further below the key 50 percent threshold now at a multiyear low at 47.2 percent. Meanwhile, the ISM non-manufacturing index is showing a different story. Although it has also been on the decline since around September, the series has yet to come close to 50 percent and printed a better than expected reading for December, now at 55 percent. The most recent readings have brought the difference between the two series to levels only seen a few times since 2000.

As investors turn more optimistic on the US growth outlook in the new year, it’s worth noting that the manufacturing recession— partially due to the cost of tariffs on US importers, as explored in a recent paper from Harvard University, the University of Chicago and the Boston Fed—has thus far not impacted non-manufacturing sentiment. This decline in manufacturing could be a rough re-election point for President Donald Trump who won the rust-belt states in the 2016 election with a promise to revive manufacturing. Instead, manufacturing stands out as significantly weaker than its non-manufacturing counterparts.



 
Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal.

The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon.  You should consult your tax and financial advisor. All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and State Street shall have no liability for decisions based on such information.

The views expressed in this material are the views of State Street through the period ended August 28, 2019 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions.

This news announcement contains forward-looking statements as defined by United States securities laws, including statements about the financial outlook and business environment. Those statements are based on current expectations and involve a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in State Street's 2015 annual report and subsequent SEC filings.  State Street encourages investors to read the corporation's annual report, particularly the section on factors that may affect financial results, and its subsequent SEC filings for additional information with respect to any forward-looking statements and prior to making any investment decision. The forward-looking statements contained in this press release speak only as of the date hereof, August 28, 2019 and the company will not undertake efforts to revise those forward-looking statements to reflect events after this date.

State Street Corporation One Lincoln Street, Boston, MA 02111-2900.

The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without State Street’s express written consent.

© 2019 State Street Corporation - All Rights Reserved

Expiration date: January 31, 2021

Tracking number: 2902898.1.1.GBL.RTL

Media Contacts

Contact a member of the State Street Media Relations Team.

Social Media

Business Wire NewsHQ℠